It has been a quarter of a century since India commenced the journey of opening its economy to the world.But the idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) for India has not received sufficient attention.The Council released its first report on October 24, 2012, providing an assessment of the 2008/09 recession, as well as an historical chronology of business cycle dates going back to 1926 (a background commentary that explains in greater details the methodology and the chronology can be found here).
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Employees on non-agricultural payrolls reached its trough in January 1992, also at 0.07 percent below its level in April.
Total hours of all non-agricultural employees reached its trough in April.
Previously, the committee had determined that the economy reached a peak of activity in July 1990.
The eight-month period between July 1990 and March 1991 is a recession in the NBER's chronology.
The choice of March 1991 as the trough date was based primarily on the fact that various averages of the monthly indicators reached clear troughs in that month. It determined that the most recent trough occurred in the first quarter of 1991.
The NBER also maintains a quarterly chronology of the U. Committee members are: William Branson, Princeton University; Martin Feldstein, NBER President; Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University; Robert Gordon, Northwestern University; Robert Hall, chairman, of Stanford University; Geoffrey Moore, Columbia University; and Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago.The committee thus determined that the recession ended in March 1991 and that an expansion began at that time.The committee had waited to make the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in July 1990.Its third report, using the most recent revisions to Gross Domestic Product data, affirmed the second report.The Council defines a recession as a pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline in aggregate economic activity.As a result, the decision regarding the dating of business cycles is not political.